Lawrence, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

882
FXUS63 KIND 270957
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
557 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat Advisory remains in effect through 8 PM this evening

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected again today into
  tonight, with isolated strong storms perhaps approaching severe
  limits - damaging winds, small hail, and heavy rain/localized flooding
  are all threats

- Scattered daily afternoon showers/t-storms through at least Monday,
  isolated strong wind gusts are possible as well as localized flooding

- Drier and slightly cooler conditions expected Tuesday and Wednesday

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Friday should be quite similar to the past several days, with the
minor exception of the approach of a weak cold front from the west,
as low pressure at the surface and aloft moves through the Great
Lakes. This will likely promote a slight uptick in coverage of
convection this afternoon and evening, and will carry some likely
PoPs northwest nearest the boundary during the peak heating hours.

Relatively weak shear and modest mid-level lapse rates will
significantly limit any severe threat, with mainly small hail and
perhaps a few near-severe downbursts associated with the strongest
cores, which may be helped along by some dry air aloft promoting
evaporative cooling and downdraft acceleration. Localized flash
flooding cannot be ruled out given relatively slow storm motions and
precipitable water values in excess of 90th percentile
climatologically as the airmass remains very humid.

Thunderstorm activity will likely continue into the evening and
perhaps overnight, though coverage and intensity will certainly wane
with nocturnal low level stabilization.

While an uptick in thunderstorm coverage may impact heat indices,
yet another day is expected with peak values around 100 degrees give
or take, and will keep the ongoing heat advisory in place for its
final day. Improvement appears likely Saturday, though in a relative
sense, as it will remain quite warm and humid nonetheless.

Lows overnight will be slightly cooler tonight, though still warm
and sticky with temperatures dropping into the upper 60s to low 70s,
near the expected dewpoints. Will have to keep an eye on fog
potential, though at this point, it appears cloud cover may keep a
lid on much of this.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Saturday through Monday night..

Expect a weak boundary associated with a departing upper wave to
stall near south-central Indiana at the start of the period. North
of the boundary, increasing subsidence from weak high pressure and
drier air filtering in will likely inhibit any precipitation. South
of the boundary, diurnal heating atop a moist PBL could promote
scattered diurnal convection.

Locations near or south of I-70 are currently favored for the
potential of diurnal convection. However, there are a few models
which show the boundary pushing almost completely through central
Indiana Saturday afternoon. This would lead to lower convective
coverage across the south due to more dry air so POPs may need to be
refined in future updates. Models trends will continue to be
monitored.

Quiet weather is expected Saturday night with weak high pressure
overhead. This will be short lived though as moisture begins to
return northward on Sunday ahead of an approaching shortwave. Look
for scattered diurnal convection to develop once again due to strong
daytime heating and moisture surging back north. Increasing dynamics
from the upper wave moving in will lead to higher rain chances
Sunday night into Monday. The system should then begin to shift east
Monday night with rain chances diminishing. Expect highs to
generally be in the upper 80s to near 90F over the weekend and mid-
upper 80s on Monday.

Tuesday onward...

Mostly quiet weather conditions are expected Tuesday and Wednesday
as weak high pressure settles in. Low rain chances (20% or less) do
linger across far southeast portions of central Indiana on Tuesday
though. This is due to model discrepancies which leads to some
uncertainty, but most guidance suggest a dry forecast. Marginal low-
level moisture could promote isolated diurnal showers or storms so
will keep these low rain chances in the forecast.

In addition to a drier forecast, slightly cooler temperatures in the
mid 80s are expected Tuesday and Wednesday. Dewpoints falling into
the 60s should also feel more comfortable compared to the miserable
humidity over the past week. Ensemble guidance suggest moisture
begins to stream back into the region late week providing
opportunities for diurnal convection.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 557 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Impacts:

- Wind gusts in the low 20KT range this afternoon

- Scattered thunderstorms near peak heating to early evening today

Discussion:

Another hot and humid period expected across the TAF sites today,
with primarily VFR conditions outside of any convection.

Winds will gust from midday through early evening, generally in the
20-23KT range from about 220-240 degrees. These gusts will subside
in typical diurnal fashion after sunset.

Another day of thunderstorm activity is expected this afternoon into
early evening, with perhaps a bit more coverage as a weak boundary
approaches the region. Will carry PROB30 groups at all sites near
peak heating into the evening when chances will be highest for
thunderstorm impacts at the sites.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Nield
LONG TERM...Melo
AVIATION...Nield